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Pressure on $1.1930 at Europe Open

EUR
MNI (London)
  • USD was seen on the back foot through Wednesday's NY session in a mix of risk driven trade and positioning ahead of today's Thanksgiving holiday/Monday's month-end.
  • FOMC Minutes released late Wednesday suggested the Fed unlikely to adjust/increase asset purchases with tapering guidance likely 'fairly soon'.
  • Wednesday being month-end value saw some USD demand counter but overall USD sell interest overwhelmed and allowed EUR/USD to recover from its opening NY level of $1.1882 to $1.1925, closing the session at $1.1914.
  • Some month-end cover was reported(preliminary models have suggested a strong USD sell signal seen for Monday fixes).
  • Asia took over the risk on baton and edged EUR/USD back toward Wednesday's high of $1.1930. A break here seen needed to boost upside momentum, exposing $1.1960/66(1.618% swing 1.1930-1.1882/Aug18 high) with most setting sights on $1.2000, with the 2020 high of $1.2011(Sep1) sitting close behind.
  • Support $1.1920, stronger into $1.1880 and $1.1850.
  • Being US Thanksgiving the old adage to 'buy the currency of a country on holiday' will be watched.
  • Germany Gfk consumer confidence(0700GMT) and France consumer confidence (0745GMT) provide early interestahead of ECB M3 at 0900GMT. ECB Lane(dove) speaks at 1200GMT, ECB October meeting Minutes released at 1230GMT, ECB Schnabel speaks at 1300GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD maintains a firmer posture having recovered off Monday's volatile low of 1.1800 and has probed key resistance at 1.1920, Nov 9 high. A clear breach of 1.1920 would reinforce current bullish conditions and expose the 1.2000 handle ahead of 1.2011, this year's high print on Sep 1. The key support remains 1.1746, Nov 11 low.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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