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Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gilts Remains In Play

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Early trend signals suggest that the recent recovery is likely to extend. The move higher does undermine the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA, at 134.97. A continuation higher would expose 136.16, the Jan 5 / 8 high where a break would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a move below 133.55, the Jan 25 low, is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
  • The trend needle in Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. The contract has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 99.40. The breach signals potential for an extension of the current corrective cycle and this has exposed resistance at 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.
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