July 04, 2022 10:05 GMT
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. A resumption of weakness would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00 is required to reinstate a short-term bullish theme. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower this week following the reversal from Monday’s high of 3584.00. The move lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A break would resume the primary downtrend. On the upside, clearance of 3584.00 is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal.
- In FX, the EURUSD trend needle still points south and the pair remains inside the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0592 and this level represents a key short-term resistance. Attention is on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. GBPUSD traded lower Friday before finding support. The move lower reinforces short-term bearish conditions with the focus on the bear trigger at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low. Resistance to watch remains 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2270, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY path of least resistance remains up. Last week’s gains delivered a fresh cycle high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Short-term retracements are considered corrective and initial support is at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A resumption of gains would open 137.30 next, 1.50 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold weakened Friday but did recover from the session low. Last week’s move lower reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. This level was breached, briefly, on Friday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1780.4 Jan 28 low. Key trendline resistance intersects at $1861.7. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures found resistance last week at Wednesday’s high of $114.05. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery and open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, an extension lower would instead open key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low.
- In the FI space, Bund futures resumed their short-term uptrend last week and a bull cycle remains in play. The contract has traded above resistance at 149.00 and this has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 152.28, 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg. Gilts cleared resistance on Friday at 114.55, Jun 24 high The break highlights potential for a stronger short-term recovery and this has opened 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.