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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Waiting For A Clear Breakout Of The Bear Channel

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday, delivering a fresh trend high that confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The focus is on; 4226.95 and 4272.35, the 1.618 and 1.764 projection of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing. On the downside, initial trend support is at 4080.50, the Aug 2 low. The short-term uptrend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is intact and yesterday’s gains signal a potential resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Initial firm support to watch is 3613.30, the 50-day EMA.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 1.0294, the Aug 2 high. Price also briefly traded above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0344. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high. 1.0344 and yesterday’s high of 1.0368 marks a key resistance zone and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions. Note that a deeper pullback and a breach of 1.0123, the Aug 3 low, would instead signal a reversal lower inside the channel. A bullish short-term theme in GBPUSD remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. The focus is on 1.2332, Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support to watch is 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday. This signals a possible reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A bearish theme remains in place and a continuation lower would expose 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger. Firm resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded higher yesterday and did breach trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger bullish reversal. A break of Wednesday’s $1807.9 high would reinforce bullish conditions. Watch support at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. In theOil space, WTI futures are trading higher today and the contract has traded above $92.65, the Aug 9 high. This cancels a recent doji candle reversal pattern and instead suggests scope for a continuation higher. The next resistance is at $94.40, the 20-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger is at $87.01, the Aug 5 low.
  • In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact. Scope is seen for a climb to 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Initial firm support is 155.32 the 20-day EMA. The trend direction in Gilts remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Two support levels to watch are; 116.46, 50-day EMA and 116.79, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. A break of this support zone would threaten the uptrend.
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