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Price Signal Summary - Gold Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable. The sharp sell-off Tuesday, threatens the recent recovery. Attention is on the key short-term support at 3900.00, Sep 7 low and a bear trigger. A break would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for deeper pullback. Tuesday’s high of 4175.00 represents an important near-term resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures faced strong resistance on Tuesday. The sharp move lower threatens the recent short-term recovery and signals the end of what has likely been a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3429.00, the Sep 5 low. Tuesday’s high of 3685.00 is the short-term bull trigger.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday and remains inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0122 and is a key resistance. A close above this level would highlight a channel breakout. For bears, an extension lower would expose the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. GBPUSD reversed lower Tuesday, reinforcing bearish conditions and signalling the end of the recent corrective bounce. Key support at 1.1412, Mar 20 2020 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and resume the broader downtrend. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high of 1.1738. USDJPY key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high, remains intact - for now. The trend outlook is bullish and a break of 144.99 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.48.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a downtrend and has traded lower today. The focus is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $1735.1, Monday’s high. In the Oil space, WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs. The latest recovery is considered corrective and a bearish threat remains present following the sharp sell-off between Aug 30 - Sep 8. Firm resistance is seen at $91.71, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $81.20, the Sep 8 low and bear trigger.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact, clearly highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the 142.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and touched a fresh trend low of 104.47 yesterday. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.
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