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Price Signal Summary - Oil Continues To Defy Gravity

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are still trading below recent highs. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4569.21 today. This average remains a key pivot resistance - a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75, the Jan 18 high. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on 4212.75, the Jan 24 low . EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable. The recent failure at 4250.00, Feb 2 high means the 50-day EMA - at 4203.60 continues to act as a firm resistance. The reversal lower also suggests that recent gains between Jan 24 - Feb 2 have been a correction and that it is over. If correct this opens 3990.50, the Jan 24 low and the bear trigger.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs plus a breach of bear channel resistance drawn from the Jun 1, 2020 high. The break of this channel top highlights a more significant reversal. The focus is on 1.1483/84 next, the Jan 14 and Feb 4 high. GBPUSD has pulled back from its recent highs. A short-term bullish condition remains intact following last week’s gains. The focus is on 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. Support lies at 1.3502/3435, the 50-day EMA and Feb 1 low. USDJPY remains above its key short-term support at 113.47, Jan 24 low. The outlook remains bullish and the focus is on 116.35, Jan 4 high and a key resistance. Initial firm resistance is at 115.68, Jan 28 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above the recent low of $1780.4, Jan 28 low. Attention remains on the recent break of the bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low. A resumption of weakness would open $1753.6, the Dec 15 low. Resistance to watch is at $1822.2, Jan 27 high. WTI futures continue to defy gravity. The focus is on $94.13, 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply lower last week and remain under pressure. Futures have cleared the 168.00 handle. The focus is on 165.24, the May 7, 2019 low (cont). Gilts remain in a clear downtrend. The focus is on 120.43, 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing.

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