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Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Tuesday:


Corrective Bounce


Bearish Threat Following Friday’s Sell-Off


Finds Support Below The 50-Day EMA

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  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis sold off sharply Friday and despite today's gains, remain vulnerable. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 4563.83. This average has in the past proved to be a reliable support and represents a key pivot level. Any signs of base building around the EMA would represent a potential bullish development in line with the underlying uptrend. A clear break would instead strengthen a bearish case. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also sold off sharply Friday and despite currently trading above last week's low, still appears vulnerable. A resumption of weakness would open 4004.00, Oct 12 low.
  • In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD objectives remain; 1.1185 Jul 1, 2020 low and 1.1128, 1.764 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. Short-term gains are still considered corrective with resistance at 1.1374, Nov 18 high. GBPUSD bears have paused for breath. Trend signals continue to point south and the next objective is 1.3216, 1.236 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday and remains vulnerable. The next key support to monitor is 112.73, the Nov 9 low. A break would strengthen the bearish case. Initial resistance is at 114.19, the 20-day EMA. EURJPY has traded below key support at 127.93, Sep 22 low. This reinforces bearish conditions with the focus on 127.28 next, 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but the outlook remains bearish within the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 low. The short-term focus is on the channel base at $1757.9 today. WTI futures reversed course Friday and sold off sharply. The break of a number of support levels suggest scope for a continuation lower short-term. The focus is on $66.21, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures have recovered from recent lows and importantly, support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low remained intact last week. This suggests the recent move lower has been a correction and that a short-term uptrend remains intact. The focus is on resistance at 172.57, Nov 22 high and the bull trigger. Gilts rallied Friday and the contract gapped higher at the open. Futures also traded above resistance at 126.23, high Nov 9 and attention is on the 127.00 handle next.