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Price Signal Summary - Treasuries Resumes Their Downtrend

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, short-term sentiment has soured. S&P E-minis failed to hold onto yesterday's high and have traded lower since. In pattern terms, yesterday's candle is a shooting star and does highlight a potential short-term top. If correct, this leaves support at 4625.25 exposed, the Nov 10 low. Key resistance is yesterday's high of 4740.50. The recent sell-off has been steeper in EUROSTOXX 50 futures. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this exposes the 50-day EMA at 4231.60. This average is a key support parameter.
  • In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The pair is trading below the base of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 1.1222 next, 1.618 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. Resistance is at 1.1374, the Nov 18 high. The recent break in GBPUSD below 1.3412, Sep 29 low, opens 1.3334 next, 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. Resistance is at 1.3520, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY has traded above last week's high and through the 115.00 handle. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend with attention on 115.51 next, the Mar 10, 2017 high. Support has been defined at 113.59.
  • On the commodity front, Gold sold off sharply yesterday. The metal has cleared 20- and 50-day EMAs and this opens $1785.1, Nov 5 low and possibly the base of a bull channel at $1754.6. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. A bearish risk remains present in WTI following the recent breach of support at $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break has opened $74.25 next, the Oct 7 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from recent highs. A deeper pullback would expose the key support at 170.06, Nov 5 low. Gilts maintain a bullish tone. Watch key support at 125.40, Nov 17 low. A break would alter the picture. Treasuries have traded below 129-31, Oct 21 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 129-03, 50.0% of the Oct '18 - Mar '20 bull cycle.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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