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Price Signal Summary - USD Resumes Its Uptrend
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable and are trading lower again today. Last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high, reinforced bearish conditions, and this week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. The focus is on 3892.98 2.23 projection of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low and of 3551.60, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. This has exposed 3458.90 next, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is at 3672.10, the 20-day EMA.
- In FX, EURUSD has traded lower this morning and cleared support at 1.0472, Apr 28 low. The break lower confirms a bear flag breakout and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.0390 next, the Jan 4 2017 low. Key resistance has been defined at 1.0642, the May 5 high. GBPUSD is softer as the pair trades to fresh cycle lows. This marks an extension of the sharp sell-off on May 5, that confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower opens 1.2162 next, the May 22 2020 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.2406, high May 9. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and resistance at 131.25, the Apr 28 high, was probed Monday. Attention is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Key support has been defined at 126.95, Apr 27 low. Initial support at 128.58 has been probed - S/T dips are considered corrective.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable and this week’s move lower confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The break of $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally, paves the way for a move towards $1821.1 next, the Feb 11 low. Sights are also set on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures reversed course Monday and traded lower on Tuesday. Last week’s break of triangle resistance, drawn from the Mar 15 low, highlighted a bullish development. However the recent sell-off suggests the bullish break was a false one. This threatens the recent recovery and exposes support at $95.28, Apr 25 low.
- In the FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend. This week’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Monday reinforced the bearish condition and confirmed, once again, an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.15, the 0.764 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. Firm trend resistance is at 156.00, Apr 28 high. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. However, today’s move higher has resulted in a break of resistance at 119.79, the Apr 25 high. This signals potential for a stronger short-term corrective phase and opens 120.67 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.87, the May 9 low. This is also the bear trigger.
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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