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Price Signal Summary: USDBRL Bear Flag

LATAM FX
  • USDMXN is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The pair stalled recently at 20.9141, the Jan 28 high and price remains below this level. Attention is on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 20.2787, Jan 18 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 20.2517, Nov 9 low and 20.1196, Oct 26 low. Key short-term resistance is at 20.9141. A break would instead highlight a short-term reversal.
  • USDBRL is consolidating and the recent pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag. The outlook is bearish. Last week’s sell-off confirmed a clear break of support at 5.3885, the Nov 11 low. The move lower highlights a range breakout and has confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 21. This has exposed 5.2230, 61.8% retracement of the rally between Jun - Dec last year. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5.4349, Jan 27 low.
  • The USDCLP trend direction remains bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. The downtrend is highlighted by a bearish moving average condition and a breach on Jan 5 of trendline support drawn from the May 10 2021 low. A resumption of weakness and a break to fresh lows would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 788.22, the Nov 10 low ahead of 783.23, the 50.0% retracement of the May - Dec 2021 upleg. The bear trigger is 793.46, Jan 27 low. Next resistance is seen at 844.56, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 27 downleg.
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