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Prime-Age Participation Pushes Higher Despite Males Lagging

US DATA
  • The surprisingly strong unemployment rate, edging lower from 3.47% to 3.43% vs consensus of 3.6%, was all the more impressive considering it came with a small increase in the participation rate from 62.29 to 62.35 (flattered on rounding to 62.4).
  • Whilst this doesn’t materially change a broad staganation in overall participation seen since early last year, the sharper increase in prime-age participation rate (from 82.4 to 82.7) might give some FOMC members hope of a renewed uptrend in labor supply.
  • There is still a little way to go for prime age participation, still off its most recent high of 82.8 from August and 0.3pps below pre-pandemic levels, but a breakdown by sex shows notably different trends.
  • Female prime-age participation is back at pre-pandemic record highs but male prime-age participation languishes, currently still more than 0.5pts off pre-pandemic levels.

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