Pro-Union Parties Secure Catalan Majority, But Gov't Formation Difficult

The 12 May regional election in Catalonia delivered a strong result for the centre-left pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), the sister party to Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez's PSOE. The PSC retained a plurality, with its seat total rising from 33 to 42 out of 135. The pro-independence parties lost their overall majority in the Parliament of Catalonia, with the hard-line separatist Junts per Catalunya taking 35 seats (up three), but the leftist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) saw its representation fall from 33 to 20.

• While the result will be seen as a strong one for the PSC and a vindication of party head Salvador Illa (Spanish health minister during the pandemic) and PM Pedro Sanchez (following a torrid few weeks amid resignation speculation), forming a regional gov't could prove difficult.
• While the pro-union parties now hold a majority, they hail from varying ends of the left-right spectrum, making working together nigh on impossible. Instead, the PSC may seek to work with the ERC, as was the case between 2003-10.
• Alternatively, Junts leader Carles Puigdemont - who remains in exile until the enactment of the Amnesty Law for those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum - has said he will seek to put together a minority administration. Given the lack of a majority for the pro-independence parties (Junts, ERC, far-left Popular Unity Candidacy, right-wing nationalist Catalan Alliance), it will be a struggle for Puigdemont to win an investiture vote to become reigonal president for a second time.