Protocol Deal Expected; Eurosceptic Conservative MPs & DUP Next Obstacles

A deal between the EU and UK on the Northern Ireland protocol is expected to be announced later today, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the UK for talks with PM Rishi Sunak. The two are set to meet in Windsor at around midday, while Politico reports a joint presser is penciled-in for 1530GMT (1030ET, 1630CET).

• The reaching of a deal with the EU could prove the 'easy' part of getting a deal on the NIP over the line. The hard-line unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has downplayed the idea that this as-yet-unknown deal meets their 'seven tests'.
• Moreover, eurosceptic Conservative backbench MPs have raised similar issues. Sunak could legally implement changes without a vote in the Commons, but this would risk major internal party ructions. However, holding a vote on a new deal in parliament could also see splits emerge.
• Mujtaba Rahman at Eurasia Group: "...Sunak is...pushing ahead now for at least 4 other substantive & political reasons 1/ He believes fair observers will see concessions he's won from Bxl are sig & meet most of DUP's 7 tests... 2/He wants to capitalise on fears within DUP that public is increasingly fed up with their stance of refusing to take part in Assembly & devolved Govt... 3/ He believes overwhelming majority of Tory MPs want the NIP issue dealt with so party can focus on 2024 elections...4/ ..[Boris] Johnson knows that trying to unseat Sunak so soon after disaster of Truss would be greeted with dismay even by some of his own supporters..."