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Proximus FV

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  • Proximus (A2/BBB+) 10y IPT given at MS+135a; We see FV at MS+105-110bps – noting the low cash price of EUR ~71 on the Proximus 36s. EUR bonds are 1-2bps wider today.
  • Not a credit we have a strong view on though we do note that spreads look wide for their rating, trading more in line with BBB names like KPN/VOD than BBB+ names like Orange/DT/Telenor. Proximus was downgraded by S&P around a year back on their new financial policy which included a higher-than-expected leverage target.
  • FY23 results were broadly in line with consensus though they guide for slow underlying revenue and EBITDA growth of up to 1%. Management see FY24 S&P-adj leverage of ~2.7x from 2.6x at FY23 against S&P thresholds of 2.5x and 3x.
  • Proximus went to market twice in 2023 for a EUR 500mn 7yr deal in March that tightened 20bps from IPT with a NIC of 15bps at MS+75bps and a EUR 750mn 10yr deal in November that tightened 37.5bps from IPT to price at MS+100bps.

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