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Public Spending on Earthquake May Amount to 5.5% of GDP, Bloomberg Estimate

TURKEY
  • While it is too early to accurately estimate the cost of the earthquake on GDP, Bloomberg economists roughly estimate that public spending on the earthquake may be equivalent to 5.5% of GDP. The death toll across Turkey and neighbouring Syria surpassed 11,600 as of Wednesday evening, with thousands more trapped inside damaged buildings.
  • The 10 provinces most affected by the quakes account for a relatively small part of the GDP, however, some also form an industrial and agricultural corridor that plays a key role in the prosperity of Istanbul and other larger cities, Bloomberg report. Oxford Economics said near-term disruptions to activity in the 10 provinces will alone shave off 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP.
  • Cumhurriyet report that the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), who has been criticised for its un-timely and inefficient intervention in the regions most heavily hit by the earthquakes, is managed by “pro-party” staff, with some members related to government ministers. President Erdogan’s administration has been criticised for their possible role in low-quality construction standards that may have exacerbated the damage from the earthquake, and his response to the disaster will be closely watched ahead of the May 14 elections.
  • The central bank will publish weekly portfolio capital flows data at 1130 GMT/1430 local time. Parliament will vote on the regional state of emergency decision at 1100 GMT/1400 local time.
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