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Pullback Stalls On CAD CPI

EGBS

The latest US and Canadian datapoints provide a floor to EGBs, which had been moving away from intraday highs pre-data.

  • The softer than expected run of Canadian CPI was the main impetus, with a fall in the US Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index also providing support.
  • Bunds are now +32 ticks higher at 133.17, with OAT and IK futures sitting similarly.
  • ECB implied rates softened a touch post-data, with 110bps of rate cuts now priced through the remainder of 2024 in ECB-dated OIS (vs 106bps pre-data).
  • The Euribor strip is now flat to +5.0 ticks through the blues, with the back of the whites through front of the reds outperforming.
  • Tomorrow's regional docket is light, with the EC flash consumer confidence indicator for February headlining on the data front. Germany also holds a 10-year Bund auction.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.902-0.8
Apr-243.808-10.2
Jun-243.590-32.0
Jul-243.402-50.8
Sep-243.183-72.7
Oct-243.005-90.5
Dec-242.809-110.1
Jan-252.670-124.0
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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