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Pulled Two Ways By External Factors For Little Change Ahead Of CPI

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a decent run of cheapening pressure following stronger than expected UK labour market data early in European hours.
  • It only takes them back to levels near unchanged on the day though after being helped richer by the PBoC following its well-documented PBoC cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate which was followed by heightened speculation surrounding the potential for wider policy easing (via BBG sources). That was in addition to cementing expectations for cuts to benchmark interest rates in the coming day along with a shallower than expected bounce in credit data through May.
  • 2YY +0.0bp at 4.577%, 5YY -0.5bp at 3.888%, 10YY -0.2bp at 3.734%, 30YY -0.5bps 3.876%.
  • TYU3 trades 5+ ticks higher at 113-17 in reasonably tight ranges with an earlier high of 113-22 only just poking above yesterday’s brief push higher. Volumes are close to recent averages but still subdued at 230k ahead of CPI. It maintains a bearish outlook with the key support level still close by at 112-29+ (May 26/30 lows), whilst resistance is seen at 114-06+ (Jun 6 high).
  • Data: CPI clearly headlines at 0830ET, with real earnings hitting at the same time.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 30Y bond re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $38B 52W bill, $45B 42D CMB (1130ET)
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