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Q1 CPI Focus, Expected To Moderate


The start of the week is quiet in Australia with the ANZAC Day holiday on Tuesday. The focus this week is likely to be Wednesday’s Q1/March CPI data, as it will be a very important input into the May 2 RBA decision.

  • March CPI is expected to ease further to 6.6% y/y from 6.8%. Q1 to 6.9% from 7.8% with the trimmed mean forecast at 6.7% from 6.9%. The domestically-driven services and non-tradeable components will also be crucial.
  • On Thursday Q1 trade prices are released and the terms of trade are expected to deteriorate. Export prices are projected to fall 2.6% q/q while import prices should rise 0.5% q/q/.
  • The RBA’s private credit data prints on Friday and is expected to post another 0.3% m/m rise.
  • Also on Friday, Q1 PPI data is published. Last quarter it rose 0.7% q/q and 5.8% y/y.

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