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Q1 Real Retail Sales Likely To Decline But Large Forecast Range

AUSTRALIA DATA

Today’s Q1 real retail sales are expected to contract 0.6% q/q after nominal sales came in flat. There is a very wide range of estimates from economists starting at +0.5% q/q and at the low end -1.4% q/q. NAB expects -0.5%, ANZ -0.6%, Westpac -1.0% and CBA -1.2%. Our proxy for retail prices produces a Q1 retail sales volume estimate of -0.8% q/q while goods prices give -1.1% q/q.


Australia real retail sales estimates y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS

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