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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
Q3 CPI came in below RBNZ and consensus forecasts but remains elevated. It rose 1.8% q/q to be up 5.6% y/y down from 6% in Q2 driven by transport, council rates and rents. The RBNZ had projected 2.1% q/q and 6% y/y. The central bank said that it is focussed on the medium-term and so an upside surprise was unlikely to shift them but given this more moderate outcome their on hold “high for longer” stance is unlikely to change.
- The domestically-driven non-tradeables CPI eased further rising a lower-than-expected 1.7% q/q with the annual rate moderating to 6.3% from 6.6% and a peak of 6.8% in Q1. It remains elevated but is moving in the right direction.
- Services prices rose a strong 2.2% q/q but still eased to 5.6% y/y from 6.1%. This series is usually robust in Q3 due to the increase in government charges at this time.
- Tradeables inflation came in a lot lower than expected at 1.8% q/q compared with Bloomberg consensus at 2.4%. It is now at 4.7% y/y down from 5.2% in Q2. Goods inflation rose 1.5% q/q to be 5.7% y/y and well off the Q2 2022 peak of 9%.
- Food price inflation rose only 0.9% q/q, the lowest quarterly rate since Q4 2021, and eased to 8.8% y/y from 12.3%. This meant that CPI ex food rose 2.1% y/y and 5% y/y up from 4.6% in Q2, but the series is well off its peak. The RBNZ’s measure of core inflation is out later today and has been at 5.8% for the last three quarters and the ex food CPI may be signalling little change in Q3 core again.
NZ CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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