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Q3 GDP Recovers in Poland, Contracts in Hungary

EMERGING MARKETS
MNI (London)

POLAND Q3 FLASH GDP +0.9% Q/Q (FCST 0.0%); Q2 -2.3%r Q/Q

HUNGARY Q3 FLASH GDP -0.4% Q/Q (FCST -0.1%); Q2 +0.8% Q/Q

  • Polish GDP surprised to the upside in the Q3 flash release, expanding by +0.9% q/q against consensus expectations of stalling. This is a promising rebound from the -2.3% q/q contraction recorded in Q2.
  • Details regarding the upwards drivers of Q2 growth will be released in the Nov 30 report.
  • Polish inflation was confirmed at the 1996 high of +17.9% in October, which will be a substantial drag on growth into year-end as spending is set to weaken.
  • Hungarian Q3 flash GDP, also released this morning, recorded a sharper than anticipated -0.4% q/q contraction.
  • Agricultural production is likely to have contributed to the decline, having recorded a considerable year-on-year downturn. The Dec 1 report will provide more clarity.
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