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Q3 GDP Surprises to Upside

SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)

The South African economy advanced by +1.6% q/q in Q3, after contracting by -0.7% q/q in Q2.

  • This outpaced consensus expectations of +0.4% q/q growth and implies the size of the South African economy is now greater than pre-Covid levels.
  • GDP expanded by +4.1% y/y, after close to stalling at +0.2% y/y in Q2.
  • Only personal services and electricity/gas/water recorded (mild) contractions. Agriculture, finance, manufacturing and transport all boosted growth, alongside robust exports and government spending. Agricultural production alone jumped by +19.2% q/q.
  • This was despite substantial load-shedding issues throughout the quarter. Output recorded continued recovery form severe flooding and lockdowns in Q2. As such, the upbeat Q3 data is partially due to comparison to a weak Q2.
  • Yet the higher Absa manufacturing PMI recorded a robust start to Q4 manufacturing, despite the October Transnet strike. High inflation and interest rates will likely dampen growth into year-end.

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