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Question On Growth Forecasts Returning To Historical Pace

ECB
  • Q: You're forecasting growth returning to the historical pace, why? Re central bank losses as rates rise, do you think it's sustainable for Eurosystem nat'l CBs to run with negative equity?
  • A: We believe that after a number of phenomenon have faded, growth will return. One is supply chain bottlenecks; one question mark is what happens to China; another is the strength of the labour market. Clearly a question mark about how the energy market will pan out. But all in all, our GDP forecasts to 1.8-1.9% come after shallow recession we forecast.
  • Some nat'l central banks have already communicated to their parliaments/stakeholders to indicate losses. Each is going to have to look at their balance sheet and operate according to their legal framework and governance. So I don't have a general framework that would apply to all of them. When you look at history, central banks can operate despite being in a loss position, and some have operated with negative equity as well.
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News

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