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Quick Preview: Steady on While Anticipating Reduction in QE

BOC
Sell-side analysts widely anticipate the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at 0.25 this Wednesday, while better than expected economic outlook since the beginning of the year should pull forward rate hike guidance from 2023 to 2022.
Some anticipation of a slightly more hawkish tone and potential removal of the reference to a closing output gap in 2023 when BOC Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the MPR report an hour later.
Most are also expecting a reduction in weekly asset purchases by CAD1B to CAD3B, citing statement from Bank Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on March 23:
  • "At the time of our January Monetary Policy Report, we indicated that if the economy plays out in line with or stronger than our economic projection, we won't need as much QE stimulus over time. And in our March policy decision statement, we said that as we continue to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, we will gradually adjust the pace of our QE purchases. We also indicated that first-quarter growth appears to be better than we expected in January. We will have a new full economic projection at our April policy decision. As new information on the strength of the recovery arrives, Governing Council will continue discussions about gradually adjusting the pace of our QE-related purchases."
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