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Rabobank Lift Terminal 50bps, Don’t Rule Out Higher

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • A few analysts including JPM and UBS chalked Powell’s remarks down to further data dependency.
  • However, on top of MS adding a May hike to be more in line with market pricing (but keeping a 25bp cut in Dec before 200bps of cuts through end-2024), Rabobank have revised up their terminal 50bps higher.
  • They see a terminal range now at 5.25-5 held through 2023 and don’t rule out a top end reaching 6% given wage-price dynamic concerns, although would need to see more data before making that their baseline.

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