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Rangebound HUF Weighs on Implied Vols

HUNGARY
  • HUF pairs remain rangebound, with the tight trade in EUR/HUF and USD/HUF so far this week reflected in continued pressure for implied vols, as the 1m EUR/HUF contract holds close to multi-month lows.
  • Markets proved surprisingly insensitive to headlines last week that Budapest was set to receive €1bln in EU funding, with market focus instead on the far larger tranches (as much as €13bln) still tied to progress on judiciary reforms. This could become a more contentious issue later in December, with the EU leaders' summit set for a clash between Orban and other EU leaders on commitment to Ukraine funding - the summit is set for Dec14-15.
  • This keeps the 200-dma as a solid anchor for spot at 379.86, a level that spot has oscillated between for ~six consecutive sessions to trade in a consolidation pattern. This keeps 379.04 as modest intraday support, but seen stronger into 375.62. To the upside, strength through 382.08 would mark a range breakout and open 382.89, the 38.2% retracement for the Sep-Nov downleg.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

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