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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUDNZD
2-Year AU-NZ Rate differentials have widened today post the RBNZ rate decision and a softer than forecast WPI print in Australia.
- 2-Year Rate Differentials sit at ~-112bps, around 8bps wider today. The chart below overlays AUD/NZD against the 2yr spread.
- The OCR now sits at 4.75% after the RBNZ raised the rate 50bps. The bank still sees the rate peaking at 5.5%, they also see a recession starting this year. There had been some speculation the bank would pause today, given the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle, so today's outcome has likely aided NZD at the margin. Governor Orr's press conference is currently underway.
- In Australia Q4 Wages Price Index surprised to the downside, rising 0.8% QoQ vs 1.0% exp 3.3% YoY vs 3.5% exp. The RBA had also forecasted wage growth of 3.5% YoY.
- AUD/NZD has retreated from multi-month highs seen on Monday. The cross now sits below the $1.10 handle.
- The technical picture for the cross is still bullish, with bulls looking to target $1.1101 61.8% retracement of the Sep-Dec down leg. Bears first target a break of the 200-day EMA ($1.0920) to target 19 Jan low at $1.0737.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Versus 2yr AU-NZ Swap Spread
Source: MNI/BLoomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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