January 19, 2023 20:00 GMT
Rates Cheapening Fades, Retail Sales Tomorrow
- An earlier cheapening in BAX futures has been trimmed, limiting the sell-off to 4 ticks in the Dec’23.
- Minimal change in the front Mar’23 on the day, +0.005, consistent with OIS pricing roughly 20bps for next week’s decision on Jan 25.
- Tomorrow’s retail sales for Nov (with advance for Dec) provide the last data steer. In line with the BoC’s view that the economy largely stalled in late 2022 and will do so in 1H23, consensus sees a -0.5% M/M decline for Nov after 1.4% M/M and CIBC expect another drop in the Dec advance.