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Free AccessRates Held and No Changes to QT In November
The Riksbank held rates steady at 4% and said they would "consider" increasing the pace of bond sales at the next meeting.
- A sizeable minority of analysts expected such a decision from the Riksbank, who said that the "inflation has fallen and inflationary pressures have clearly eased". Others had expected a 25bps hike today.
- Guidance that the policy rate may be raised further was maintained, alongside commentary that the krona was still "unjustifiably weak".
- The revised policy path is very similar to September , with a slightly lower path for rate through 2025. The peak rate remains at 4.10% and is forecast to be held till Q4 2024 (vs Q1 2025 prior) - as we and analysts expected in the event of a hold.
- They note a decision on increasing the pace of Government bond sales may be made at the next meeting. The decision not to change anything today is consistent with their preference for "gradual and predictable" bond sales, and aligns with consensus.
- The SEK has weakened somewhat on the release, but EURSEK is only 0.25% higher on the day at typing.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.