Rates Surge, March 50Bp Liftoff Cools, Geopol, Policy Risk Events Ahead

FI Markets very well bid after the bell, 30Y Bonds topping early overnight gap bid late; yield curves bull steepening: 5s30s +4.081 at 44.62. 30YY currently 2.1674% -0.1064 vs. 2.1618% late session low (2.2507% high).

• Russia invasion of Ukraine main driver for risk-off support in rates. Trading desks report preop, fast- and real$ buying 5s, continued foreign and domestic real$ and bank portfolio buying in 10s-30s.
• Short end funding concerns heat up w/3M FRA/OIS gap wider overnight, tapped 23.80 around Asia/London cross, gradually receding since: currently 18.40 +5.30 vs. late Fri.
• Bostic reiterated need to "move off emergency rate stance", is supportive of 25bps hike at the March 16 FOMC -- unless inflation measures continue to climb -- opens the possibility of 50bp liftoff.
• Wide, near 0.100 range in lead quarterly Mar'22 Eurodollar futures, near highs as 50bps liftoff inches lower. Reds-Gold surge 0.14-0.20 higher by the close. Large Block buys+50k EDH2 99.335, +50K EDU2 98.525, +20k EDM 98.92.
• US Pres Biden State of the Union Address Tue evening 2100ET
• Fed Chair Powell will be giving the semi-annual monetary policy report testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Weds March 2 and the Senate Banking Committee on Thu March 3 - 1000ET.
• The 2-Yr yield is down 14.1bps at 1.4283%, 5-Yr is down 14.6bps at 1.7194%, 10-Yr is down 12.6bps at 1.8353%, and 30-Yr is down 9.9bps at 2.1745%.