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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
In a noteworthy development yesterday, RBA dated OIS signalled a halt to the tightening cycle and, at one stage, had priced a 25bp easing by the RBA by year-end. By the close, easing expectations had been scaled back to 10bp.
- Today’s early price action however suggests a rethink of sorts with pricing across meetings 6-14bp firmer with June leading.
- Significantly, April meeting pricing has moved to around a 20% chance of a 25bp hike.
- Nonetheless, with the terminal rate (5.66%) priced for May/June today’s price action should be seen as only a tentative step towards reinstating the tightening cycle ahead of the all-important Employment Report for February tomorrow.
- Easing expectations by end-23 are slightly lower at 9bp.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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