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RBA Expected To Hike 25bp Again, Q3 GDP To Moderate To 0.6% q/q

AUSTRALIA DATA

The highlight of the calendar this week is Tuesday’s RBA meeting where expectations are overwhelmingly for another 25bp hike bringing the cash rate to 3.1%. The other event of interest is GDP for Q3 on Wednesday.

  • Today the Melbourne Institute measure of inflation prints for November. Last month it rose to 5.2% from 5% but the trimmed mean moderated to 4.9%.
  • In terms of Q3 data, company profits and inventories print on Monday with the former expected to fall 1.5% q/q and the latter rise 1.0%. Then on Tuesday the current account is published and it is expected to narrow to A$6.2bn. This release also includes the contribution of net exports to GDP which are forecast to detract 0.5pp.
  • The Q3 data above feed into GDP, which is published on Wednesday. Analysts expect growth to have slowed to a still robust 0.6% q/q from 0.9% in Q2. Estimates range from 0.1% to 0.8% but most are in the 0.5% to 0.8% range.
  • The October trade account prints on Thursday and is expected to narrow slightly to A$12.1bn with both exports and imports rising 2% m/m.
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