RBA Focus Of The Week & Consensus Expects A Pause

The key event this week in Australia is likely to be Tuesday’s RBA meeting. The market is not expecting any further tightening and the consensus is expecting a pause but 11 of the 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a further 25bp hike.

• The RBA meets on Tuesday and is forecast to pause for the first time since April 2022, but expectations are not unanimous.
• On Monday, the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for March prints. In February it only eased to 6.3% y/y from 6.4% and implied that inflation was yet to peak. A more decisive moderation will be anticipated.
• CoreLogic March house prices will be followed by more housing data on Monday with home loans and building approvals for February also released. Housing finance has been weakening in response to rate hikes and is expected to drop another 1.8% m/m. Building approvals are forecast to rise 10% m/m but tend to be volatile due to the apartment component but private homes have been soft.
• Final March Judo Bank composite and services PMIs print on Wednesday. They have recently tended to be revised up on the final release.
• On Thursday, trade data for February are published. The surplus is expected to narrow slightly to $11.22bn.