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RBA Q1 2024 Hike Odds Soften Post Today's Hike

STIR

The table below compares the pre RBA levels for OIS against updated ones post the decision outcome. Current market pricing doesn't see much chance of a Dec hike. Q1 hiking odds have also been trimmed for next year (albeit remain comfortably above 0. The terminal rate around mid year is also only down a touch from pre RBA levels.


Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Today & Pre-RBA
Today (%)Pre RBA (%)Change (%)
Dec-234.324.320.00
Feb-244.354.42-0.07
Mar-244.414.47-0.06
May-244.454.49-0.04
Jun-244.484.49-0.01
Aug-244.484.480.00
Sep-244.464.48-0.02
Nov-244.444.45-0.01
Dec-244.404.400.00
Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News

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