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RBC: Time For The Doves To Spread Their Wings

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  • On balance, RBC loved the CPI report. They have said for "many, many months" that core CPI will be moving in the right direction by year end, and that a 3-handle by mid-23 or a 2-handle by end-23 was not at all heroic - they still very much like these calls.
  • They think the Fed are "completely overdoing it here" although for now struggle to see a scenario where it doesn't hike 50bps in Dec, although "would like nothing more than for them to stop".
  • "What we could see happen on the back of this soft CPI is it allows different camps within the Fed to really start to re-emerge. Every Fed official has been a hawk of late. It’s time for the doves to spread their wings."
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  • On balance, RBC loved the CPI report. They have said for "many, many months" that core CPI will be moving in the right direction by year end, and that a 3-handle by mid-23 or a 2-handle by end-23 was not at all heroic - they still very much like these calls.
  • They think the Fed are "completely overdoing it here" although for now struggle to see a scenario where it doesn't hike 50bps in Dec, although "would like nothing more than for them to stop".
  • "What we could see happen on the back of this soft CPI is it allows different camps within the Fed to really start to re-emerge. Every Fed official has been a hawk of late. It’s time for the doves to spread their wings."