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RBNZ Likely To Stay Hawkish On Strong Wage And Employment Data

NEW ZEALAND

The employment and wage data for Q3, while backward looking, are likely to affirm the RBNZ’s hawkish stance and justify further rate hikes ahead. High inflation is resulting in strong wages growth in New Zealand and the further tightening of the labour market suggests that is not about to change.

  • While private wages both including and excluding bonuses were in line with expectations at 1.2% q/q and 1.1% respectively, private average hourly earnings were higher than both economist forecasts and the previous quarter coming in at +2.6% q/q and 8.6% y/y (Q2 2.3% & 7%), a series high.
  • Employment growth was also significantly stronger than expectations and the previous quarter growing by 1.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y. This was not enough to bring the unemployment rate down due to a large pickup in the participation rate of almost one percentage point to 71.7%, the highest recorded since the series began in 1986.
  • The underutilisation rate fell to 9% from 9.2%, as people work more hours to fill labour shortages. Job security also improved in the quarter.
New Zealand private average ordinary hourly earnings y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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