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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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The kiwi went offered amid dovish RBNZ repricing inspired by a speech from Asst Gov Hawkesby, who signalled the Reserve Bank's cautious approach to raising the OCR, noting that "when there is a typical amount of uncertainty, and the risks are evenly balanced, then central banks globally tend to follow a smoothed path and keep their policy rate unchanged or move in 25 basis point increments." Market pricing no longer suggests that participants are sitting on the fence re: October monetary policy meeting. The OIS strip now prices exactly 25bp worth of tightening at the upcoming MPC gathering, which is tantamount to one standard sized OCR hike.

  • AUD/NZD rose to its best levels in a week as AU/NZ 2-year swap spread moved away from multi-year lows. The Antipodean cross had been weighed on by growing central bank outlook divergence over the recent months.
  • NZD was the odd one out among commodity-tied G10 FX amid an uptick in broader risk appetite. Most high-betas (AUD, CAD, NOK) edged higher as sentiment finally got some reprieve after the recent turmoil surrounding China's Evergrande.
  • Selling pressure hit the yen amid reduced demand for safe haven currencies. Although equity benchmarks in Japan ground lower, U.S. e-mini futures managed to register gains.
  • Regional liquidity and headline flow were limited by market closures in China, Taiwan and South Korea. China and Taiwan will reopen tomorrow.
  • U.S. housing starts & current account balance, Riksbank MonPol decision and comments from ECB Vice Pres de Guindos take focus from here.