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Real Yields Climb Still Could Have A Way To Go

  • Today’s large cheapening in Treasuries following Friday’s beats for payrolls and ISM services comes with real yields climbing further (5YY +12bps, 10YY +8bps).
  • In doing so, 10Y real yields have increased from a low of 1.09% in the gap between the FOMC presser’s dovish reaction and Friday’s payrolls, to 1.37% currently.
  • However, it’s still only back to level immediately after last month’s surprise weakness in AHE (about half of which was subsequently revised away in Friday’s January print) and ISM services (which has been fully unwound after the sharpest monthly increase since the pandemic). Prior to these misses, 10Y real yields were ~1.5%.

US 5Y real yields (white) and 10Y real yields (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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