REALITY CHECK Part 1: Hiring Robust; Hurricane Effects Mixed

--Steady Hiring Seen Into Year-end

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - Job placement in most U.S. states remained robust in

September despite the storm impacts, according to recruiters interviewed for

Market News International's latest REALITY CHECK on U.S. hiring trends.

     For the Gulf Coast and the states hardest hit by Hurricanes Harvey and

Irma, while businesses lost revenue and employees were forced to stay home,

there were also new hires to deal with clean-up and insurance questions. 

     In August and early September, Joe Hohmann, owner of the Express franchise

in Naples, Florida, had been seeing steady hiring trends and September was about

"on target," but then "things changed quite dramatically" in the wake of

Hurricane Irma hitting southwest Florida Sept. 10. 

     Immediately, there was need for workers to clean up debris and remove

fallen trees and signs. Not long after, anyone in skilled trades, such as

carpenters, plumbers, electricians, dry wallers, and those in tree services and

stump grinding were in hot demand, he said. 

     This went hand and hand with demand for call center and administrative

support workers. Some of these jobs related to remediation efforts were

temporary and workers have already come and gone, but others may last a month or

so longer, he said. 

     By Monday, Sept. 18, those not immediately hit by Hurricane Irma were up

and running and "by the second half of the week, most businesses had regained

power, water and internet service and were back on line," he said. 

     In terms of his Express franchise, the storm "did impact hiring

temporarily," but "postings came back pretty quickly after the hurricanes as

well," Hohmann said. 

     Southwest Florida has a seasonal economy, with October and November busy

hiring months for positions in hospitality, country clubs, etc... and he

anticipated solid postings and placements into year-end. 

     "What we saw a bit of last year and I think we're seeing it more this year,

is that in anticipation of the seasonal hiring needs in our area, companies are

starting to hire a little bit sooner and put the feelers out there and start to

interview individuals sooner than they might normally, simply because they want

to attract the talent and get first in line to attract the top talent," Hohmann

said.

     On the West Cost, there has been no sign of letdown in terms of employer

demand for workers. 

     "Within the last month, we've seen definitely a higher uptick and request

for our services," with companies "ramping up for the end of the year," said

Frank Armendariz, Regional Vice President Arizona and Mountain States, Manpower,

a brand of ManpowerGroup.

     Openings at call centers, distribution centers and manufacturing firms were

where he saw the largest volume in terms of positions.  

     Hurricanes Harvey and Irma "added another layer of need for employers,"

with "a significant amount of requests to support different aspects of the

hurricane that happened in Florida and in Texas," Armendariz said. 

     The immediate need in the weeks right after the hurricanes was for

"customer care" support people to be able to field insurance-related and other

calls from those devastated by the hurricane, he said.

     But looking ahead, "the construction side's going to see, and continue to

see, a significant surge," Armendariz said. 

     Reid Bates, owner of Express offices in Olympia, Centralia and Aberdeen,

Washington, saw a "very steady third quarter - higher than we've had in previous

third quarters."

     "We had more clients giving us orders and we also had more of our current

clients, that we were hiring for, with increased needs and just longer times to

fill - so, our order board has stretched out to uncomfortable lengths because of

that challenge," he said. 

     On the West Coast, Preet Kuar, Executive Recruiter and Business Development

Manager at Pacific Staffing in Sacramento, CA, had anticipated a modest slowdown

heading into October, but this was not the case. 

     "Last month for us was insane - it was really busy," she said, adding that

the firm saw requests to fill both "newly created positions" and "a lot of

replacements," i.e. fills for workers that clients recruited earlier who have

since moved on to other jobs. 

     Coming on the back of July and August, which saw solid job postings and

placements, "September was a really good month for us - September was quite an

increase for us, Kuar said. 

     Looking ahead, "we don't see recession here any time soon in our region,"

she said. 

     A increasingly robust U.S. economy and the ever-thinning talent pool in

Northern California has forced firms, that have been unable to fill positions on

their own, to turn to recruiters in September, desperate to hire ahead of the

holiday season.  

     Pacific Staffing typically handles "professional services," but more

recently, she has fielded calls for seasonal-type jobs, such as Pumpkin Patch

workers.

     "We just don't have people.  The economy is good, so parents aren't pushing

their kids to make their own money," Kuar said. 

     John Calabrese, owner of the Mohawk Valley Express office in Utica, NY, had

a record month in terms of job placements in September. 

     "The demand is tremendous," he said, with job hires seen "across all of our

sectors, which was good, and then the largest increase was taking place in

manufacturing," he said. 

     Calabrese looked for "one more surge" in hiring in late October to mid-

November.

     His Express office just did an inventory of open jobs and what is

anticipated between now and the end of the year for their largest clients. 

     Based on these findings, "I see this continuing right through December," he

said of the current hiring trend. 

     This week, the National Retail Federation released its Holiday 2017

forecasts for retail sales and hiring, noting that the retail industry planned

on hiring between 500,000 and 550,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, down

from 575,000 temporary workers in 2016. 

     "One of the factors numbers are low for seasonal hires this year is because

retailers are offering more hours to their current staff before beefing up with

new seasonal employees," Ana Serafin Smith, senior director/media relations at

the NRF, told MNI. 

     September U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released Friday Oct. 6 at 8:30

a.m. ET. 

     MNI's median estimate looks for +70,000 for headline non-farm payrolls,

with a range of -45,000 to +125,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold

steady at 4.4% and average hourly earnings are seen at +0.3%.

     Editor's Note: Reality Check stories report on sentiment among business

people and their trade associations. They are intended to complement and

anticipate economic data. If you are currently an MNI subscriber and want to be

on the Reality Check email-distribution list, contact sales@marketnews.com

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

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