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Recovery Paused On Inventory Data

OIL
  • Both WTI and Brent saw a decent recovery yesterday after falling to their lowest levels since mid-June on Tuesday. This was in line with the recovery in risky assets elsewhere with equities also higher yesterday.
  • However, in contrast to equities that continued their gains into the US close, oil's rally was interrupted by API inventory data which rose for the first time in six weeks. Remember that this data was released a day later than usual due to the Labor Day holiday and similarly the DOE data will be released a day later today. After yesterday's API data this will be closely watched.
  • The reaction to the inventory data continued into the Asian session but both WTI and Brent are now close to flat versus their respective closing levels.
  • Broad market sentiment will be determined by the ECB meeting today which is expected to be fairly uneventful but will be watched for any comments on the exchange rate.
  • Our technical analyst notes that both Brent and WTI futures remain vulnerable despite yesterday's recovery. For Brent, attention is on $39.25 next, a Fibonacci retracement and $37.94, the Jun 12 low with initial resistance is at $42.23, Tuesday's high. For WTI the same levels are relevant and correspond to $35.94, $35.25 and $39.59 respectively.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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