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Regional Manufacturing Surveys Imply Tepid ISM Improvement

US DATA
  • The average of the five regional Fed surveys point to a smaller improvement for Monday’s ISM manufacturing report than last week’s flash PMI – see chart.
  • It has however come from a particularly wide range amongst the five, with the volatile Empire bouncing 35pts to +10.8 whereas the Philly Fed fell further to -31.3 at levels not seen outside of 2008/09 or two month lows of the pandemic.
  • The regional Fed surveys are more in keeping with Bloomberg consensus for ISM mfg of 46.8 (+0.5pts) but before that tomorrow sees the MNI Chicago PMI, with consensus of 43.6 (-0.2pts).

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