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Removal of skew to 2/3-year inflation forecasts leans dovishly

BOE
  • We picked up on this in our IA with the 2/3-year forecasts but still worth noting as this also wasn't expected (and leans a bit dovishly):
  • "The Committee judges that the risks around its modal CPI inflation projection are skewed to the upside over the first half of the forecast period, stemming from geopolitical factors. It now judges that the risks from domestic price and wage pressures are more evenly balanced, meaning that, unlike in previous forecasts, there is no difference between the MPC’s modal and mean projections at the two and three-year horizons."
  • It will be interesting to see how much weight Bailey puts on the forecasts in the presser - whether they seem to still lack confidence in the projections or whether now the skew is gone these projections will have more weighting on future decisions.
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