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Free AccessREPEAT: MNI ANALYSIS: BOJ Sees Solid Exports Despite Soft Data
--BOJ Data: Feb Real Trade Index -2.1% M/M Vs. +2.5% in Jan
--MOF Data: Feb Exports +1.8% Y/Y, Slowing From +12.3% in Jan
By Hiroshi Inoue
TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's real export index posted the first month-on-month
drop in two months in February but Bank of Japan officials maintain their view
that exports are on a gradual uptrend in the first quarter of 2018, backed by
solid global demand, MNI understands.
BOJ officials note trade figures tend to fluctuate sharply month to month
in the January-March quarter due to the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays in
China, the key export market for Japanese chip-making machines and electronics
parts.
--REAL EXPORTS DOWN
The seasonally adjusted real export index calculated by the BOJ based on
the trade data released Monday by the Ministry of Finance showed a 2.1%
month-on-month fall in February, the first drop in two months after +2.5%
(revised up from +2.1%) in January. In October-December, real exports rose 2.3%
on quarter, the second straight rise after +1.9% in Q3.
MOF data showed Japanese exports gained 1.8% on year in February. It was
the 15th straight year-on-year rise but the pace of increase decelerated from
+12.3% in January and double-digit percentage gains in most of 2017 due to
slower shipments around the Lunar New Year holidays.
BOJ officials expected to see a pullback in February after rush shipments
to China in January ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February.
--SOLID AUTO EXPORTS
Exports of Japanese automobiles to the world rose 15.7% on year in
February, up from +6.7% in January, indicating global demand remained solid, the
MOF data showed.
Shipments of automobiles to the U.S., which account for about 40% of total
Japanese auto exports, rebounded 12.3% on year in February after a 3.9% fall in
January, while those to the European Union, with a 12 % share of total Japanese
auto exports, rose 39.3% after a 19.1% rise.
The BOJ will release the details of its real trade indexes Friday.
--WATCHING DOMESTIC DEMAND
The BOJ's real import index rose 6.3% on month in February, the first rise
in two months after -3.1% in January, leading BOJ officials to believe domestic
demand remained solid in early parts of 2018.
Imports gained 16.5% on year for the 14th straight year-on-year rise after
+7.7% in January, led by increased purchases of clothing, liquefied natural gas
and refined petroleum products, the MOF data showed.
Other than trade data, BOJ officials are also focused on whether production
of transport equipment rebounded in February after a sharp drop in January in
preliminary industrial production data due on March 30.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said last month the output of
transport equipment was projected to rise 13.6% on month in February after a
14.3% fall in January.
The BOJ focus is also on how government forecasts for March production of
electronic parts and devices (-10.8% m/m), general machinery (-0.5%) and
transport equipment (-3.3%) will be revised in the upcoming data.
Production tends to decline in January, May and August due to factory
shutdowns during the public and seasonal holidays.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.