-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China Has Considerable Fiscal Space To Spur Growth
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1006 Mon; -3.96% Y/Y
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.72% In Week of Jan 5
REPEAT:MNI POLICY:IMF WEO: Growth Revised Lower; Downside Risk
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 01:00 GMT Oct 9/21:00 EST Oct 8
--IMF Sites Trade Policies As Key Negative Factors To The Outlook
By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The International Monetary Fund issued the October
update to their World Economic Outlook in Bali Tuesday morning. The update was
decidedly more negative than in the previous two reports.
Here are the key points from October WEO update:
-The IMF lowered the global growth pace to 3.7% for both 2018 and 2019 from
the 3.9% rates reported in the April and July WEO releases, noting that "the
balance of risks to the short-term global growth forecasts has now shifted to
the downside" and that the chance of an upside surprise has diminished.
--The IMF noted that rising trade tensions, a move away from rules-bases
trading systems, and the expected contractionary impact of an unwinding of US
fiscal policy in 2020 are key negative factors in the outlook. The IMF noted
that downward adjustments to growth were larger for countries that trade with
the US.
--Global inflation has been lifted by energy prices, but core measures of
inflation have remained below target in a number of countries. At the same time,
global wage growth has remained modest. However, inflation surprises could lead
to faster policy tightening, particularly in the US, creating tighter financial
conditions than already exist.
--The WEO update left the forecast for US growth at 2.9% for 2018, but
lowered their forecast for growth in 2019 to 2.5% from the 2.7% rate reported in
the April and July updates. The IMF suggested noted that the stimulative fiscal
policy measures that have boosted US growth and trimmed unemployment in 2018
will have a neutral impact in 2019 before being a drag on growth in 2020 and
beyond. The IMF suggests raising the revenue-to-GDP ratio through indirect
taxes.
--The WEO suggests that the Federal Reserve should continue to gradually
tighten rates as US growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is at
decades-low levels, while acknowledging that the fiscal stimulus in an
already-strong US economy places increased burdens on the Fed to keep the
economy from overheating. The IMF forecasts an additional rate hike in 2018 and
four rate hikes in 2019, with the Fed Funds rate reaching 3.5% at the end of
2019.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.