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REPEAT: MNI: RBA Coombs: Econ Conditions Of States Converging

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 02:29 GMT Oct 10/22:29 EST Oct 9
By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Conditions in the state of Western Australia, the area which
saw the largest decline in domestic demand in recent years, are now showing
signs of stabilizing and converging with economic performance in other states,
the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy head of economic analysis department
Merylin Coombs said Wednesday.
     Coombs was speaking in Broome in Western Australia on the topic, "Economic
Conditions in Australia - Some Implications for the Kimberley."
     Below are the key observations we made from the speech.
     --Coombs' speech centred around the improvement in economic conditions in
Western Australia, which means there is now less variation in the economic
outcomes between different states in Australia. Her comments were mainly based
on the RBA's liaison program which is used in the their assessment of
developments in the Australian economy. Overall, there was an optimistic tone to
the speech with respect to all the three key perspectives she discussed:
business investment, labour markets and housing markets.
     --Coombs' briefly touched on the Australian economy, reiterating the RBA's
forecast for growth to remain a little above 3% for the next year or so, which
will further reduce spare capacity in the economy, and help a gradual increase
in wages growth and inflation. She noted that China's growth has slowed a little
but has held up despite increasing trade tensions with the U.S. Coombs' also
said that commodity prices have been higher than the RBA had expected. The RBA
continues to expect commodity prices to decline during 2019 but not to decline
as far as the lows seen in 2015-16.
     --Coombs' said the combination of higher commodity prices and the need to
sustain capital expenditure has resulted in a pick-up in activity across the
resources sector in Western Australia. She pointed to the announcement of three
large replacement iron ore mines to be built in coming years and also
progression in plans for a couple of large offshore gas projects in the early
2020s, some of which is to maintain production levels. In addition, there are
prospects for future investment in gold and lighter-weight metals and
battery-related minerals due to an improved outlook for the global uptake of
electric vehicles and renewable energy. Coombs' also said there are signs of
pick-up in mineral sector activity in the Kimberley region.
     --Coombs' made a case for strong population growth in the state because
that is important for "material improvement" in housing construction, adding
that prospects for such a pick-up are closely linked to the labour market
outlook.
     --Employment growth has increased in Western Australia since the start of
2017 and the recent increase in job vacancies suggest further growth is to come,
Coombs said. While labour availability remains ample, there are some signs of
tightening for certain skills in mining and related sectors. The RBA is watching
reports of tight labour availability closely, as a steady decline in spare
capacity in the labour market is one of the main factors behind the forecast for
a gradual pick-up in aggregate wages growth and inflation, she said.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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