Free Trial

REPEAT:Phil Fed Survey:Economists Significantly Cut Infl Fcast

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:05 GMT Aug 11/10:05 EST Aug 11
--2017 Headline CPI at 1.7%; Down from 2.3%; '18, '19 marked down 1pp
--2017 Core PCE at 1.5% vs 1.9% Previously, Now Expect 2% Infl in 2019
By Karen Mracek
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Economists in the latest Philadelphia Federal Reserve
Bank's quarterly survey marked down their forecast for core and headline
inflation measures this year, while making slight downward revisions to 2018 and
2019 forecasts.
     In the most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters, the 39 surveyed
economists now expect inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target for core PCE in
2019, versus in 2018 in the previous quarter's survey.
     Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, the inflation
outlook is significantly weaker for headline CPI inflation and headline PCE
inflation in 2017. Headline CPI was downgraded to an expected 1.7% this year,
versus 2.3% in the last survey. Headline PCE was down to 1.5% forecast from 1.8%
in the previous quarter.
     The forecasted core measures of inflation were also marked down in the
third quarter survey. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is now
forecasted to be 1.5% this year, versus 1.9% expected last quarter. Core CPI was
marked down to 1.7% this year, from 2.2% in the previous survey.
     CPI showed a 1.7% year over year gain in July, data out Friday morning
shows. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy was also at 1.7% year over year.
     Inflation is front and center for monetary policymakers as they consider
whether another rate hike this year is appropriate. Before the CPI data was
released this morning, markets expected only a 30% chance of another rate hike
this year, most likely at the December meeting.
     Even while the forecasters in the Philadelphia survey marked down
substantially the inflation expectations for this year, they only minimally
downgraded their forecasts in 2018 and 2019. Almost all the measures --
including PCE and CPI, headline and core -- were marked down one percentage
point.
     "Over the next 10 years, 2017 to 2026, the forecasters expect headline CPI
inflation to average 2.25% at an annual rate, down slightly from their previous
estimate of 2.30%," the survey said. "The corresponding estimate for 10-year
annual-average PCE inflation is 2.00%, also slightly down from the previous
estimate of 2.09%."
     While the inflation forecasts moved down, GDP expectations were little
changed. Real GDP is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% this quarter and
2.3% next quarter, both a rebound from the weaker than expected 1.2% in first
quarter GDP.
     On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real
GDP growing 2.1% in 2017, 2.4% in 2018, 2.2% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. The
survey showed the economists were more certain about their 2017 GDP forecast
than they were in the May survey.
     When it comes to the other side of the Fed's mandate, maximum employment,
the forecasters revised downward estimates of job gains to a monthly rate of
180,400 this year. But they increased their forecast for 2018 to 165,800
monthly, from the previous estimate of 162,800.
--MNI Washington Bureau;tel: +1 202 371-2121; email: karen.mracek@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });