REPEAT: POV: RATES ON HOLD, STEADYISH OUTLOOK...>

RBA: REPEAT: POV: RATES ON HOLD, STEADYISH OUTLOOK

- The RBA will leave the cash rate unch when it issues its MonPol decision

Tuesday. Despite some downside risks for both inflation and growth, the Bank is

likely to maintain its glass-half full approach, with focus on further progress

in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to target. More focus likely to

fall on comments from Gov. Lowe's speech at the Anika Foundation (Wed) and the

Bank's SOMP (Fri).

- Central Scenario: Rates unch, acknowledge moderation in domestic funding rates

from recent cycle highs, potential comment on the downtick in house

prices/effects on consumption, with counterbalance from stronger retail sales.

- Hawkish Risk: Focus on stronger Q1 GDP data, increased competitiveness in the

mortgage mkt lowering rates in some products and elevated labour mkt vacancies.

- Dovish Risk: Increased focus on the trade war situation, heightened worry

around the downside risks to inflation owing to consumption effects from the

moderation in house prices, increased worry re: funding rates pushing to fresh

cycle highs at quarter end.