Rescheduled Putin Speech: What To Look For

Speculation is rife on potential mobilisation measures to be announced in a touted speech from Russian President Vladimir Putin on the ongoing invasion of Ukraine and planned annexation "referendums" in the occupied regions.

• Putin's speech may clarify the extent of Russian territorial claims. The collaborationist administration in Kherson region said they will seek to join Russia within the region's administrative borders. Should Putin echo these comments, he would up the ante in the psychological game with Kyiv, laying claim to some areas still controlled by Ukrainian forces.
• There is growing consensus that the sham votes are intended to serve a twofold purpose. Externally, the annexation will allow Moscow to frame Kyiv's attempts to recapture these areas as infringements of Russian territorial integrity. This would act as a deterrence strategy, legitimising threats of more forceful attacks on Ukraine and providing a fresh context for rattling the nuclear sabre.
• Domestically, the formalisation of control over the occupied parts of Ukraine would allow Putin to silence opposition voices. It would appease the pro-war camp that has grown disappointed with insufficient progress on the front, while presenting the anti-war camp with a fait accompli.
• It is considered unlikely that Putin will announce a full-scale military mobilisation, due to prohibitive logistical issues and potentially devastating political and economic costs. Newly drafted conscripts would need training and equipment before being deployed to the front. Furthermore, even partial mobilisation would decimate Russia’s labour force, in additional to being deeply unpopular among the wider public.
• Duma Defence Committee chief Kartapolov said Tuesday that "there will be no general mobilisation" but martial law can be imposed in certain regions. This includes "regions bordering Ukraine, which are under shelling almost daily." Kartapolov was one of the co-authors of legislation passed by the Duma, which introduces the terms “mobilisation,” “wartime,” and “martial law” into the Criminal Code.
• There is a risk that Putin announces partial mobilisation measures, but there is much uncertainty about the exact form they could take. Some suggest that instead of announcing a new draft, the Kremlin could deploy the current undertrained conscripts to the new "border" of the Russian Federation.
• The exact timing of Putin's speech remains uncertain. Earlier reports suggested that it could be broadcast at 08:00 Moscow time, but Kommersant cited a Telegram channel Baza as noting that local media have been asked to keep the 09:00-10:00am time slot open.