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Resumes Downtrend Despite US Retail Sales Miss, 1.1704 Vulnerable

EURUSD
  • The immediate resumption of broad dollar strength following the weak US retail sales data enhances the vulnerability of the major support level less than 30 pips away.
  • 1.1704 represents the 2021 lows printed in March. The additional 1.1706 print just last week has bolstered the significance of horizontal support ahead of the 1.17 mark. Weaker data from the US last week prompted a sharp bounce for the pair to 1.18, however, the trend condition is bearish and those recent gains are considered corrective.
  • A break below would leave the single currency at the lowest levels since November 2020 and would open up 1.1603, Low Nov 4, 2020. Below here, the immediate post pandemic highs at 1.15 would likely act as strong psychological and pivot support, which also matches up with the 50% retracement of the March 2020-Jan 2021 price swing.

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