Resumption Of Palm Oil Exports Underpins Firm Trade Surplus, Boosting Rupiah

Spot USD/IDR last changes hands at IDR14,997, little changed on the day (note the impact of overhang impact from overnight greenback appreciation), following the release of Indonesia's trade data (see details below), with the rupiah outperforming its regional peers. Topside technical focus falls on Jul 6 high of IDR15,024, followed by May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138. Bears look for a dip through Jul 11 low of IDR14,958 before targeting Jun 27/21 lows of IDR14,794/14,784.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF has shed 32 figs to last trade at IDR15,098, reflecting the reaction to expectation-beating trade data. Bears look for a deeper retreat towards Jul 8 low of IDR14,966, while bulls need a break above yesterday's high of IDR15,185 to reassert dominance.
• MYR/IDR deals at IDR3,372, down ~7 figs on the day, with bears looking for further losses past the 100-DMA (IDR3,367) and Jun 27 low (IDR3,3358). The pair's recent pullback from cycle highs may have been partly fuelled by the fierce Indonesia/Malaysia competition in the palm oil market, as Jakarta seeks to boost shipments to make up for the period when it temporarily banned exports. Jul 1 high/round figure of IDR3,399/3,400 provide the initial layer of resistance.
• Indonesia's trade surplus soared to $5.090bn in June from $2.900bn prior, easily beating consensus forecast of $3.482bn. Exports were boosted by a rebound in palm oil shipments, as Indonesia lifted restrictions on exporting its flagship commodity. In numerical terms, palm oil accounted for slightly more than half of Indonesia's trade surplus.
• FinMin Indrawati and BI Gov Warjiyo will be interviewed by Bloomberg later today as Indonesia hosts the summit of G20 FinMins & central bank chiefs.